AILSA CHANG, HOST:
All right, another shutdown is on the horizon. Major swaths of the federal government will run out of money at midnight tonight. Agencies from the Pentagon to the Departments of Transportation, Health and Human Services and Homeland Security - they will all run out of money. Senators approved a spending package to get things reopened, and we're assuming that the legislation will get approved in the House.
But why are we even talking about a shutdown at all? - because remember, people, funding the government is a basic constitutional responsibility for Congress. But shutdowns have become an increasingly common political tool. NPR congressional reporter Sam Gringlas and senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro have been digging into the politics of shutdowns, and they join us now. Hello to both of you.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey there.
SAM GRINGLAS, BYLINE: Hey, Ailsa.
CHANG: All right, Sam, let's start with you. I want to start with a very basic question. What is behind this upcoming shutdown?
GRINGLAS: Well, it's the immigration enforcement tactics of the Trump administration. You know, this final group of spending bills were on track to pass on time and with bipartisan support. But the second deadly shooting by a federal immigration officer in Minneapolis upended all of that, and Democrats pledged to withhold their votes for the funding to try to extract some guardrails that would rein in some of these aggressive tactics.
CHANG: OK, and Domenico, explain. Why force a government shutdown in order to get to a policy goal?
MONTANARO: Well, like we've said many times before, life in the minority stinks. You have very few tools to use as leverage to try and extract any compromises, and this is one of the only ones they have. You know, I think Democrats learned with the shutdown toward the end of last year that they could win the blame game. That one was about elevating health care, introducing the idea that Republicans weren't going to extend health care subsidies. It's something people weren't really talking about much before that. Now there's an issue that's right in front of everyone's eyes and dominating the news with majorities in polls saying they disagree with the Trump administration's deportation tactics, which is actually easier political ground to stand on for Democrats.
CHANG: Exactly. And, Sam, I want to go a little deeper into that because we have had shutdowns in the past, but these two are coming so close together. Is there something about this specific moment that's different from previous shutdowns?
GRINGLAS: Take the 35-day shutdown over border wall funding in 2018 to 2019.
CHANG: Oh, I remember.
GRINGLAS: I remember watching House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, you know, negotiating with President Trump in the Oval Office in front of the TV cameras. I asked Drew Hammill, a top Pelosi aide at the time, how that moment was different from now.
DREW HAMMILL: From a debate about a distant wall to your own neighborhood, to your own backyard - yeah, that's a different scenario.
GRINGLAS: Now we're talking about the presence of a federal force sparking violence in an American city or, in the fall, people's health insurance premiums doubling or even tripling. That's really personal. This is also a moment where Congress has ceded so much of its authority to the executive, and as Domenico said, Democrats have really limited options to do anything about that. And as Drew Hammill told me, voters want and expect a fight.
CHANG: Yeah, maybe, but Domenico, is that the fight that they want - a fight over a government shutdown?
MONTANARO: Well, maybe, maybe not, but Democrats have shown their ability here, again, with the last shutdown and now in this moment, to be able to capitalize on Trump's vulnerabilities. And whether the left is happy with Democratic leaders efforts or not, I think what we're seeing here is that the center has moved left on how to conduct immigration enforcement. You're seeing moderate Republicans loudly oppose ICE's actions and against these jumps to conclusions we've seen by people like Kristi Noem, the Department of Homeland Security secretary, and Stephen Miller, a Trump deputy chief of staff.
CHANG: All right, well, Sam, are Democrats in Congress looking at this funding fight over ICE any differently than the one we last talked about over health care subsidies?
GRINGLAS: Well, we know Democrats are more unified than last time. Last fall, six Democrats broke with their party to end the stalemate despite only getting the promise of a vote on extending the subsidies. They were worried about the risks of a shutdown - federal workers missing paychecks, food stamps running out. Now five of those six were willing to risk another shutdown, and I got to catch up with one of them, Jacky Rosen of Nevada. And I asked her, what changed?
JACKY ROSEN: ICE is out of control. Donald Trump is out of control. His tyrannical government, his cruel cabinet - who the hell do they think they are? We have a Bill of Rights.
GRINGLAS: Democrats feel emboldened because what's happening in Minnesota strikes at something more fundamental about the direction of the country in a way that maybe the health subsidies debate just didn't.
CHANG: OK, well, that's how Democrats might be feeling. What about Republicans?
GRINGLAS: Yeah, we're in an era when congressional Republicans rarely criticize the Trump administration, but the images coming out of Minneapolis have made even more Republicans uneasy. Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina told reporters this week why he thinks members of his caucus are spooked.
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THOM TILLIS: It's terrible. It's making the president look bad on policies that he won on. He won on a strong message about immigration. And now nobody's talking about that. They're talking about the incompetence of the leader of the Homeland Security. These people are amateurs. They got to de-escalate there and treat these communities with some respect.
MONTANARO: Yeah, and this has become a major concern within Republican ranks, as you can hear there. You know, this is an issue that Republicans had owned, and now it's a liability talking about immigration. Take a Fox News poll that was out this week - 6 in 10 voters it surveyed said ICE has been, quote, "too aggressive." That's jumped since last summer.
And it's not just because of progressives with strong opposition. Whites without college degrees jumped 14 points. Independents are up 22. Even Trump voters and Republican women were up, too, and that's in a survey where more than half approved of Trump on border security. But clearly ICE's tactics have been weighing Trump and the GOP down and made the narrative less about immigrants not coming to the country illegally and more about the harsh tactics used in trying to deport them. These are major red flags for Republicans in an election year and why we're seeing a shift.
GRINGLAS: Though, I should say, openness to sweeping policy changes is far from universal among Republican lawmakers who have blasted Democrats for holding up funding. This is Senator Markwayne Mullin, Republican of Oklahoma.
MARKWAYNE MULLIN: We're not going to keep ICE from doing their job. The American people wanted the president to enforce law and order, and ICE is doing their job.
CHANG: But, Sam, I mean, is what we're seeing right now just illustrating the power of the shutdown, the polarization of politics, or do you think we're seeing something else entirely?
GRINGLAS: I mean, I think it's a little bit all of the above, but I put this question to Republican Capitol Hill veteran Antonia Ferrier. Her old boss was the former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. He used to describe shutdown standoffs as box canyons, these narrow gorges with no exit on the other end, where you're making demands, and there's no way out.
ANTONIA FERRIER: What I think we're seeing right now is markedly different. You can see it viscerally across America but also in the halls of Capitol Hill. There is just so much public attention and outrage that Democrats are demanding - and many Republicans agree - there has to be some kind of changes made.
GRINGLAS: Still, Ailsa, we have seen so many instances of Republicans expressing discomfort over something - like, say, Trump's actions in Venezuela - only to back off after some tepid reassurances. And even if Republicans are amenable to some changes here, like with the health subsidies, those talks can still crumble. So in the end, will the power - or, I guess, legacy - of these shutdowns be tangible policy changes or really just directing the public's attention ahead of the midterms?
MONTANARO: And all this in addition to the fact that prices are what voters have been saying have been driving their decisions.
CHANG: Yeah.
MONTANARO: ...And now Democrats putting Republicans on their heels on health care and immigration.
CHANG: That is NPR's Domenico Montanaro and Sam Gringlas. Thanks to both of you.
MONTANARO: You're welcome.
GRINGLAS: Thanks. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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