The American Israel Public Affairs Committee has been getting a lot of attention this election cycle, with some Democratic candidates proudly declaring they've sworn off contributions from the group. In Michigan's Democratic primary for U.S. Senate this month, Abdul El-Sayed lambasted his opponent, Rep. Haley Stevens, for receiving AIPAC support.
El-Sayed's victory was emblematic of the increasing influence of the Democratic left and the rising animus toward both the pro-Israel group and money in politics more broadly.
AIPAC's focus is on strengthening the U.S.-Israel alliance. Founded in the early 1950s, it worked for decades to maintain strong bipartisan relationships in Congress and push for policies that benefit the two countries' partnership.
"They always had a couple of basic rules. Number one, they did not endorse candidates," said Ken Toltz, a longtime gun violence prevention activist who began his political career at AIPAC several decades ago.
Ahead of the 2022 election cycle, AIPAC's status quo transformed when it created a political action committee and super PAC — a massive sea change. Its longtime chief executive at the time, Howard Kohr, credited the new foray to a burgeoning political era marked by hyperpartisanship, the groundswell of a vocal anti-Israel minority and the increasing cost of campaigns.
AIPAC did not respond to a request for comment, but in a 2022 interview with The Washington Post, Kohr explained the strategy shift by saying, "We wanted to defend our friends, and to send a message to detractors that there's a group of individuals that will oppose them."
"I think before the '22 election cycle, you could ask a thousand people, 'What is AIPAC?' — and you wouldn't find more than one in a thousand who had any familiarity with it," said Toltz. "Today, that's completely shifted. The awareness of AIPAC is much, much greater, although the understanding of who AIPAC is and what it does is very mixed."
Decrease in Americans' support of Israel
Criticism of AIPAC has increased as support for Israel has eroded among Democrats as a result of the war in Gaza and the ongoing Iran war.
"Things started going south for them because of the extent of devastation in the Gaza war and public opinion turning against Israel," said Ron Kampeas, the former Washington bureau chief for the Jewish Telegraphic Agency.
A recent Pew Research Center survey found that 60% of U.S. adults have an unfavorable view of Israel, up from 53% last year. For the first time since Gallup started asking the question more than 20 years ago, more Americans in February said their sympathies in the Middle East lay more with Palestinians than Israelis, by a 41% to 36% margin.
In July, over 100 House Democrats voted to cut aid to Israel. The effort ultimately failed, but it was a significant sign in the shift of support, even splitting the Democratic leadership.
Toltz said that it's a "five-alarm situation" and that AIPAC's venture into campaign spending has toxified the brand.
"The proof is in the pudding. What have they accomplished in these three election cycles? Do we have a more supportive Democratic Party? No. Do we have a more supportive Congress? No. Is the relationship stronger? No," Toltz said.
It also raises questions for generally pro-Israel Democrats on how to navigate campaigns where AIPAC support is used as a cudgel.
"The enemies of AIPAC have turned its endorsement into a mixed blessing at best and sometimes a lead weight at worst, because the brand of AIPAC has been tarnished somewhat," said Van Jones, a Democratic political analyst.
But AIPAC is unlikely to measure its success by any one election — taking the long view.
"The primary season isn't over. We're continuing to look at different races. We'll also look at races in the general election," said Patrick Dorton, the spokesperson for United Democracy Project, AIPAC's super PAC. "At the end of the day, we want to make sure that there is the largest possible pro-Israel bipartisan majority in Congress. That's what we've done for three cycles now, and we're going to continue to do it this cycle and next cycle and six cycles from now."
New era of spending
Besides the war in Gaza, Kampeas attributes the growing friction between AIPAC and some Democrats in part to the group's campaign against the Iran nuclear deal during the Obama administration, along with its endorsement of dozens of Republicans who voted against certifying the results of the 2020 presidential election.
One of AIPAC's biggest successes was in the 2024 cycle when it helped oust then-Rep. Jamaal Bowman of New York, a vocal critic of Israel.
But a key flash point, especially among centrist Democrats, came in a special House primary this year in New Jersey, Kampeas said. In that race, United Democracy Project spent to defeat former Rep. Tom Malinowski, a pro-Israel Democrat who had signaled openness to constraints on military aid.
"That's no longer a crazy left-wing position. That is a centrist position," Kampeas said.
Ultimately, AIPAC and its affiliates' strategy appeared to backfire in the race for what is a reliably blue House seat. While Malinowski lost, the winner, Analilia Mejia, is a progressive organizer who is much more critical of the Israeli government and has called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a "war criminal."
AIPAC's targets aren't only on the far left — it also sought to oust Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., a longtime isolationist behind the failed effort in the House to end aid for Israel.
United Democracy Project has steadily increased its spending since it began in 2022.
According to OpenSecrets, a nonprofit that tracks campaign spending, UDP spent $26 million in its first cycle and $37.9 million in 2024, and it has reached about $62 million this year, including $30 million in Michigan's U.S. Senate primary alone.
Brendan Glavin, director of insights at OpenSecrets, points to instances in Illinois where super PACs affiliated with UDP popped up.
"There's a group called 'Affordable Chicago Now' and 'Elect Chicago Women,'" Glavin said. "To the naked eye, you wouldn't think they have anything to do with AIPAC, but these groups were all substantially funded from UDP or through other related sources."
He said it's not unique to AIPAC: "It's not an uncommon technique for a national super PAC to set up affiliated super PACS that have names with a regional flavor to them."
Glavin said AIPAC and its affiliated groups are certainly major players in the fundraising game and are relatively on par with AI and crypto groups, which he said have spent over $50 million and $72 million, respectively, this cycle.
"The biggest players we will see as we go into the general election — those affiliated with party leadership," he said, adding that in 2024, those groups spent hundreds of millions of dollars.
For AIPAC's substantial ability to mobilize this amount of money, economist and Brown University faculty member Dany Bahar says its "win rate" is comparable to other single-issue groups like the National Rifle Association and Planned Parenthood.
"AIPAC is pretty average when it comes to win rates," Bahar said. "It does stand out by the amount of money — they're able to mobilize important sums of money. But you could also read that as maybe they're less effective, because for less amounts of money, other PACs are having the same results."
Misperceptions
At times, AIPAC's fundraising has been painted — implicitly or explicitly — as coming from foreign agents.
"It's perfectly fine to be critical of AIPAC, perfectly fine to be critical of Israel — it's perfectly not fine to say that an American organization is actually a foreign organization or a front for a foreign government. That's just not true," Jones, the Democratic political analyst, said in an interview.
"It's very dangerous to say that American citizens, especially American Jews, can't express their political opinion and donate to a political cause that supports the country of their choice. It's almost like a dual-loyalty old stereotype that Jews are really not loyal Americans, they really are part of some Jewish conspiracy," Jones said.
In ads blanketing the U.S. this primary season, AIPAC is often singled out by name.
"AIPAC has somehow become the symbol of everything that's wrong with money in politics," Jones said.
Dorton, the United Democracy Project spokesperson, said, "It's very concerning that anti-Israel candidates on the far left have chosen to single out AIPAC in the primary process and literally not mention any other organization."
"We're an American organization made up of millions of pro-Israel American voters who believe in American values and American democracy," he added. "The issue of a stronger U.S.-Israel relationship is equally valid to any other advocacy."
As the political debate around AIPAC grows more heated, that central mission may be facing some of its toughest challenges since the group's founding.
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