MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:
Two minutes - that is how long President Trump says it will take him to figure out whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is serious about finding a way to end his war with Ukraine. The details are still scarce but Putin and Trump are set to meet this Friday in Alaska. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was not invited. I want to bring in someone who was in the room the last time that Trump sat down with Putin. That was Helsinki back in 2018. John Bolton was serving then as President Trump's national security advisor. Ambassador Bolton, great to speak with you again.
JOHN BOLTON: Well, thanks for having me.
KELLY: So what lessons did you take from that summit in Helsinki that perhaps Trump might wish to heed this time around?
BOLTON: Well, this time, Trump is more the central actor, I think. He views this as a potential way of getting a resolution to the war in Ukraine that could lead to a Nobel Peace Prize. But it's a very advantageous meeting for Putin as well. I think he realizes he probably intentionally or unintentionally pushed Trump a little bit too far in not agreeing to a ceasefire over the past six months, and he's going to try and reel him back in. He obviously presented some elements of a plan, at least, to Steve Witkoff, who brought them back in some confusion from Moscow.
KELLY: The envoy who was just meeting with President Putin in Moscow. Go on.
BOLTON: So we'll probably see a more extended version of that plan, and Trump will decide whether it's something that he likes and whether he'll present it to Zelenskyy.
KELLY: I gather you believe that Trump has already made a mistake by virtue of holding this summit on U.S. soil. And I'm curious why? Because that would seem to give Trump something of home court advantage.
BOLTON: Well, I think he's giving an international pariah, a leader of a rogue state who - which invaded Ukraine unprovoked and has been excluded from these kinds of diplomatic encounters for years now, and is giving him a platform and an opportunity that Trump may not realize for Putin to try and work his KGB training to get an advantage here. If Putin convinces Trump that he legitimately wants peace but presents a plan that's unacceptable to Zelenskyy, by having the first mover advantage, which is what this summit gives Putin, it could put Zelenskyy and Ukraine in an untenable position.
KELLY: How big a deal is it that Zelenskyy won't be there? Can you end a war being fought in Ukraine without Ukraine at the table?
BOLTON: Look, I think earlier this year, we saw Trump and Putin speaking without consulting Zelenskyy, and Putin actually made a lot of progress there. Remember what - Putin's objective here is not to reach a peace agreement. He's trying to recreate the Russian Empire. And if he can back Trump away from providing U.S. military assistance to Ukraine, including critically military intelligence, that would be a huge victory from his point of view.
KELLY: To the point that President Trump says he will, and I quote, "probably in the first two minutes" know whether a peace deal can be reached, that he will be able to read Putin that fast, what do you think?
BOLTON: Sure. Well, that's the way Trump does things. He doesn't - he's not going to read extensive briefing papers for this summit - which, by the way, is probably the fastest summit put together in recent history, certainly that I can recall - basically nine days from when the idea came up in the Witkoff meeting.
KELLY: One week from when we all learned about it, when they...
BOLTON: From when he...
KELLY: ...Announced it.
BOLTON: ... Announced it.
KELLY: Yeah.
BOLTON: So I think this is Trump believing that he can read the other side. He views international relations as basically being the personal relations between heads of state. He did essentially the same thing with Kim Jong Un the first time he met with him in Singapore in the first term and came out later and said the two of them had fallen in love.
KELLY: So it seems pretty clear what a win would look like for Trump. He secures some kind of agreement. He gets to walk away and say that was a great meeting, and I've ended the war, and let me, you know, claim my Nobel Peace Prize. What are the risks for Trump at this summit?
BOLTON: Well, I think the risks are actually pretty minimal. If he thinks he's got, with his own modifications - I think one thing Putin will try and do is get buy-in from Trump by - if Trump gives a suggestion or a change, Putin will do everything he can to agree to it. He'd love for Trump to come out of this meeting thinking it's his plan. That would be the ideal outcome.
But the risk is, if he says Putin's not interested, he can pull out of the diplomatic negotiations. He can say a pox on both your houses. And as I mentioned, he can cut off U.S. military assistance to Ukraine. On Monday, Trump was once again very critical of Zelenskyy for keeping the war going, you know, just for senseless reasons like maintaining Ukrainian freedom and independence.
KELLY: Although is there a challenge for Trump here in that he seems to want a deal more than Putin does?
BOLTON: Well, I think you can't get a Nobel Peace Prize unless you get the deal. But from Trump's point of view, if he thinks that - if Putin convinces him that he's sincere, whether he is or not, and Trump then takes the deal to Zelenskyy who rejects it, he can say, I've done everything. Again, on Monday, he referred to the war as Biden's war and that he didn't even commit himself to participate in a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, which he repeated endlessly during the 2024 campaign that he would do - he'd get the two of them in a room and solve it in 24 hours. He's even backed away from that now.
KELLY: Can you tell from the outside now, but can you tell who Trump is listening to on this? Who is advising him on what the strategy should be going in?
BOLTON: Well, I assume anybody who's in the senior ranks in the national security community should be. But I'm not aware that they're having NSC meetings on this or that Trump's really listening to anybody other than Steve Witkoff, who took the wrong message back, apparently, from what Putin intended at their meeting last Wednesday.
KELLY: And how - has had zero diplomatic experience until this year.
BOLTON: But he's a friend of Trump's.
KELLY: Game this up from Vladimir Putin's point of view. Understanding none of us are inside Vladimir Putin's head, what are the risks for him?
BOLTON: I think his main risk is that Trump leaves the meeting unalterably opposed to what Putin has come with. If Putin can convince him that he's sincere, that he wants peace, and that his plan is reasonable, then I think he's brought Trump over to his side again. It's the two old friends - as Trump thought they were going into this second term - have reached an agreement that looks reasonable, and now the Europeans and particularly Ukraine should accept it.
KELLY: That is former national security advisor John Bolton. John Bolton, thank you.
BOLTON: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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