MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
For more, we're going to turn to Robin Wright. She's been writing about Iran for decades for publications including The New Yorker. And she's the author of several books on Iran. Good morning, Robin. Thanks for joining us.
ROBIN WRIGHT: Good morning, Michel.
MARTIN: So what does appear to be Israel's endgame?
WRIGHT: Well, it's not clear, I think, to most of us. The question is, how do either side get out of this? Because the danger is that both countries rally around their flags. The Iranian regime is very unpopular, but this is a moment where Persian nationalism, which goes back five millennia - people are very proud. They don't like to be attacked. They want to be the ones to decide their future, not to have another country come in and try to dictate what they do, whether it's on energy, it's on regional relations, on supporting extremist groups. So this is a moment for the Iranians that it's also an existential challenge.
The question is, how does Israel or how far is Israel intending to go? The exit strategy is not visible to, I think, most of us. It said it was going in after nuclear targets, and it expanded within 24 hours to start hitting energy resources, oil depots, gas installations - and Iran, you know, has the third largest reserves in the world. So this is an issue that could ripple over into the international community, the international markets at a time that, you know, because of Trump's tariffs, that there could be questions of what price everybody else is going to have to pay from this conflict.
MARTIN: Where do you think is the greatest risk for miscalculation? There already seems to be some miscalculation in the sense that neither side's defenses have held up as they would have wished. So what would you be most worried about right now?
WRIGHT: Well, Bibi Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, issued a video appeal to Iranians to rise up and rid themselves of an oppressive regime, as he called it. The danger is, what's next? If Israel is thinking that it can either create a failed state or try to rally, you know, a counterrevolution, you know, what does that lead to? And the danger is that you get a more militarized regime in Iran or that you get a failed state that leads to chaos within, but again, because it's such a huge geostrategic property, that it affects the world. It's 2.5 times the size of Texas. Israel is the size of New Jersey. These are both the major military powers in the region. The danger is that this goes on for a while and there's no easy off-ramp, even if diplomacy is still on the table.
MARTIN: And, you know, before this happened Friday, there were supposed to be negotiations between the U.S. and Iran this weekend. Iran called them off. I think what I've heard you saying is you don't really see, at least in the near term, an opportunity for diplomacy to resume. Or is that wrong? I mean, is there any?
WRIGHT: There have been a lot of calls over the weekend. What happens next? Is there a possibility of resuming talks in Oman that were scheduled for Sunday? That's the immediate off-ramp. But if Israel will stop, if then Iran stops its retaliatory missile strikes - that have surprised Israelis in terms of the impact, the inability to prevent them all from hitting Israel, which it was able to do last year in the exchanges between the two nations - I think President Trump is willing to resume negotiations. But Israel really has the key leverage in what happens next.
MARTIN: And before we let you go, and we have about a minute left for this, I think this is obviously always an issue that concerns Americans. President Trump says the U.S. had nothing to do with the attack, but Iran does blame the U.S. And Washington does provide significant foreign aid and military assistance to Israel. So if this conflict continues, if it grows more intense, do you think the U.S. would get more actively involved?
WRIGHT: I think if there are moves by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's energy supplies move every day, then I think the United States might get involved. If there are Iranian attacks on tankers, as happened in the '80s during the Iran-Iraq War and the U.S. got involved. I think everyone's trying to prevent an escalation that ripples over into the Gulf, impacting oil supplies - then the U.S., you know, could get sucked in. Notably, the Iranians have not yet hit American targets. And the U.S. has 40,000 troops spread throughout the Middle East. That's the big question. Is it contained or does it ripple over?
MARTIN: That is foreign affairs analyst and author Robin Wright. As we said, she's the author of many books about Iran and U.S. relations. Robin Wright, thank you so much for joining us.
WRIGHT: Thank you, Michel. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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